Another busy week in the prediction market has closed, with major players in the space working to bolster their operations and counter pushback against event contracts.
Each Friday at SBC Americas, we highlight some of the biggest headlines and stories you may have missed involving prediction markets.
This week in the prediction market industry, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against Minnesota after Gov. Tim Walz signed legislation that bans the operation and advertising of prediction markets in the state.
Meanwhile, the CFTC and the NHL agreed to a two-way information sharing deal by signing a memorandum of understanding. The CFTC and the NHL reached a deal “to protect the integrity of professional hockey and maintain fair and transparent prediction markets.”
Here’s more prediction market news that shook things up in U.S. gaming this week.
Betr agrees to a major acquisition
Betr expanded its reach in the market space on Wednesday through its acquisition of Ascent Capital Management Inc.
The deal will allow Betr to expand its prediction market offerings through Ascent’s registration with the National Futures Association and CFTC as an introducing broker.
“This acquisition is another step toward our vision of creating the first true nationwide real-money gaming app,” said Betr CEO Joey Levy. “By securing IB registration through the acquisition of an established broker, we can now focus entirely on launching a seamless, compliant prediction markets experience powered by Polymarket.”
In March, Betr landed a multiyear deal with Polymarket to make its entry into prediction markets. The pact allows Betr to offer event contracts powered by Polymarket in its app.
Polymarket diversifies trading options in the U.S.
Polymarket is taking steps to offer parlay-style event contracts to users in the U.S.
The prediction market filed self-certification documents with the CFTC to provide “combinatorial outcome” contracts on its U.S. exchange. According to the filing, Polymarket’s parlay-style event contracts each have a notional size of $1.
The offerings also have no position limits, with a $25,000 position accountability level.
Polymarket is aiming to expand its offerings after dissolving its waitlist in the U.S. by allowing iOS users to download and access its exchange in the region. The end of the waitlist allows consumers in the U.S. 18 and older to sign up and trade with Polymarket.
New trade group for prediction markets emerges
A new advocacy group has launched in support of CFTC-registered prediction markets.
The Americans for Fair Markets (AFM) launched on Friday, providing prediction markets with a new trade group that aims to thwart pushback against event contract trading.
“We’re not going to be outspent or out-organized by entrenched interests protecting their monopolies,” said AFM Board Member and Kalshi Head of Government Relations John Bivona. “Millions of Americans have shown they want regulated, open, and fair prediction markets — and we’re going to make sure they have access to them.”
AFM will work with key stakeholders in government and gaming to discuss federal policies related to prediction markets and federally regulated exchanges.
Kalshi takes enforcement action against a watchdog
The prediction market sent a cease-and-desist order to FairPredicts after the organization created the website, KalshiLies.com.
Kalshi sent the C&D order for the “publication, dissemination, and paid promotion of false, misleading, and commercial disparaging statements appearing on the website.”
FairPredicts takes issue with Kalshi’s claims that “traders meet on a neutral exchange” and that its trading isn’t against the house.
In the C&D, Kalshi vows to seek legal and equitable remedies if FairPredicts fails to comply with its demand to remove the defamatory and false statements posted on KalshiLies.com.
New York lawmakers advance bill to ban prediction markets
New York lawmakers are considering legislation that aims to outlaw certain event contracts while raising the minimum age for event contract trading in the state.
On Wednesday, the Senate Racing, Gaming and Wagering Committee voted unanimously to advance Senate Bill S9414. The measure proposes a ban on event contracts that pertain to sports, politics, catastrophic events and security markets. SB S9414 also aims to raise the minimum age for prediction markets from 18 to 21.
The bill awaits further consideration by the Senate Finance Committee.
