LAS VEGAS – While prediction markets seemed a safe bet to be one of the biggest discussion topics at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E), the strength of the rhetoric used to condemn them was perhaps the week’s biggest talking point.
Ultimately, prediction markets were the inescapable subject of this year’s event at the Venetian Expo, permeating almost every panel and receiving fierce criticism from numerous prominently placed speakers. Those included:
- American Gaming Association (AGA)
- Indian Gaming Association (IGA)
- State tribal entities
- Vegas casino giants Caesars and MGM Resorts International
As court battles continue across the country with prediction markets operators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on one side and state regulators on the other, G2E’s approach equated to a heavily tilted account of the conflict.
AGA, tribes say it’s ‘good guys vs. bad guys’
Throughout comments Monday and Tuesday during main-stage feature presentations, AGA President and CEO Bill Miller called prediction markets “a generational opponent that poses an existential threat” and used increasingly strong language to condemn that industry.
“At the AGA, we are operating on wartime footing,” Miller told attendees at one point on Tuesday. He called prediction markets “untaxed, unregulated, predatory organizations” that he said are masquerading as investment sites.
The AGA has been vocal in its anti-prediction markets stance. Miller positioned the situation as “good guys” vs. “bad guys” and objective right vs. objective wrong.
“While we knock on the front door, there’s a new group of well-funded bad guys who’ve kicked in the back door,” Miller added.
Miller said that the AGA and its allies are winning the fight in both the courts and the proverbial court of public opinion because lawmakers, regulators, and the American public “get to compare the good guys and the bad guys.”
“One contributes $18bn to states and communities,” he continued. “One respects state laws. One respects tribal sovereignty. One invests billions in responsible gaming. One has spent decades earning the trust of communities across this country. That’s us. That’s the gold standard of our industry, and it’s everything that makes us the good guys.”
AGA, IGA coalition fights ‘existential threat’
A notable feature of this year’s G2E was the AGA and major tribal leaders sitting side-by-side to address a common enemy.
During a Monday session titled ‘The Power of Unity: Confronting the Prediction Markets Challenge Session’, Miller, IGA Chairman David Bean, and IGA Executive Director Jason Giles spoke multiple times of a “coalition” between the AGA and Indian Country.
“[Prediction markets’] message to states and tribes seems pretty straightforward: ‘Your laws don’t matter. Your regulators don’t matter. Your tax structures don’t matter. Your sovereignty doesn’t matter’,” Miller said. “They know what they’re doing wrong.”
The AGA and tribes evidently believe they are winning the war. Giles read aloud snippets of the opinions published by the Sixth Circuit and Ninth Circuit federal appeals courts, suggesting that the reasoning laid out by the judges for deciding in favor of states shows that prediction markets “are going to lose either way.”
G2E speakers made ample reference to prediction markets losing 15 consecutive federal court rulings, and states prevailing in 40 out of 45 court decisions to date.
“We haven’t lost [in court] in a long time, and the reason is that judges, the public, policymakers, politicians, and regulators all understand what’s at risk here,” said Miller.
Also noted was the fact that the overwhelming majority of state attorneys general have gone on record to agree that prediction markets constitute illegal gambling, something the tribal leaders and the AGA positioned as an indication of clear right vs. wrong.
“The momentum is there in the courts, and we’re gaining momentum in the court of public opinion,” said Giles, echoing Miller’s comments.
California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) Chairman James Siva added that prediction markets “are losing because what we are doing is right, and what we have built up is too important for us to let money be the deciding factor.”
Caesars, MGM CEOs add their voices
The G2E prediction markets discussion also spilled over into a ‘CEO Outlook’ session on Tuesday, wherein CNBC correspondent Contessa Brewer covered numerous topics with:
- Caesars CEO Tom Reeg
- MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle
- Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings
While online gaming giants like DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel launched prediction markets products in late 2025 and have scaled them up notably since, the brick-and-mortar casino giants remained on the sidelines. Reeg and Hornbuckle were forthright in their responses to questions from Brewer about their stance.
“The cavalier approach of some of these guys in the leadership group is hurting the industry, full stop,” said Hornbuckle, noting that prediction market platforms allow users as young as 18 to bet across the U.S., including in states like Utah that have not legalized betting.
Meanwhile, after the recent Caesars shareholder vote that approved the company’s takeover by Fertitta Entertainment, Reeg stated that event contract markets were available for trading on whether Caesars would be acquired in 2026.
“There was nothing in their regulations that prevented me from placing a bet [on that market], which is astonishing,” the Caesars CEO added. “… I worry that something awful is going to happen in this interim period because of the lack of regulation and oversight that’s going to tar all of us, whether we are operating in the regulated markets or in prediction markets.
“The fig leaf of ‘this is a swap’ is just ludicrous,” Reeg added.
Other Nevada gaming leaders made similarly strong comments at G2E. Speaking on a separate panel on Tuesday, Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) Chairman Mike Dreitzer said that “the bottom line is that crime and deception are not innovation, and that’s what we’ve got here.”
AGA vows not to ‘take our foot off their throats’
All told, with no speakers from the prediction markets industry to provide a counterpoint, attendees were left in no doubt about how the Nevada gaming industry feels.
Miller accused prediction market companies and the CFTC (whose chairman, Michael Selig, he called both a “nitwit” and “the most dangerous man in gaming”) of reframing the Commodity Exchange Act to suit their own agenda.
“We have the Constitution. We have federalism, we have [the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act], we have federal statutory protections, in addition to state and tribal sovereignty pieces that are absolute and not assailable,” Miller added. “But these guys are bulldozing them … They have absolutely tortured the Commodity Exchange Act and contorted it in a way that made it unrecognizable.”
While the litigation battle winds its way toward a seemingly inevitable Supreme Court case, prediction market platforms continue to offer sports trading across the majority of the country. But Miller told the G2E audience that the AGA and its allies are confident that the endgame is approaching.
“Their best days are behind them, their house of cards is falling apart,” he said. “They realize the walls are getting closer, the judges are getting smarter, and reality is going to set in …
“Now, they’re on the run. The only way we lose is if we take our foot off their throats.”
