Keeping up with the crossfire of prediction market lawsuits in the United States can make a person look like Linda Blair in The Exorcist.
Shortly after relaunching as a sports-focused prediction market this week, Novig sued the state of New York on Wednesday to block enforcement of gambling laws against the operator. That filing arrived days after New York sued Kalshi for $36bn for operating illegally in the Empire State. In turn, that suit came days after Kalshi’s bid to block New York from pursuing the company failed.
And that’s just New York.
So, then, even the most engaged follower might glaze over this passage at the bottom of page 22 of Novig’s filing that appears to say the quiet part of the prediction-market legal situation out loud:
Novig, Inc.’s founders were familiar with prediction markets from the company’s earliest days and came to view that model as the better fit for Novig’s product.
Novig did not initially pursue federal designation because, in the regulatory environment then prevailing, it anticipated that federal approval could take years and offered no assurance that sports-related event contracts would be permitted.
Novig therefore first pursued state-by-state licensing, securing a Colorado license in October 2023, before returning that license in April 2024 and later pursuing a federally regulated prediction-market model.
In tighter focus, Novig’s conclusion that “federal approval could take years and offered no assurance that sports-related event contracts would be permitted” places into public record the idea that prediction market companies foresaw their path to market as changing the referee rather than the rules.
Prediction market timeline for Novig
The “regulatory environment then prevailing” appears to reference the Biden-era Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that fought against Kalshi rather than for it. In fact, the timeline of Novig’s transformation from foundation as a betting exchange in 2021 to prediction market in 2026 (with a layover at sweepstakes gaming) loosely tracks with both Kalshi’s Sept. 2024 court victory allowing election betting and Donald Trump‘s Jan. 2025 return to the U.S. presidency.
With Trump’s second term came a CFTC about-face that not only permitted but promoted prediction market companies. While not necessarily correlated, the pivot benefited the Trump family, as Donald Trump Jr. owns significant stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket.
Novig’s relaunch as a sports-focused prediction market and accompanying federal lawsuit against New York arrived this week within the now-prevailing regulatory environment after months, not years, awaiting federal approval.
Why Novig is suing New York
Novig directly cites the state’s legal actions against Kalshi and Coinbase as reasoning for trying to preempt New York on its supposedly preempted enforcement.
“New York has moved aggressively against federally regulated event-contract trading within its borders, suing both KalshiEX LLC and Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. under Executive Law § 63(12) for offering the type of contracts at issue here. Novig, having just secured its status as a Designated Contract Market (“DCM”) registered by the CFTC, brings this action to prevent Defendants from doing the same to Novig,” the suit filed in U.S. District Court.in New York reads in part.
In Kalshi’s legal battle against New York, the same district court ruled in favor of the state in July. That decision arrived nearly 10 months after Kalshi filed to prevent enforcement of a cease-and-desist order from state gaming regulators in Oct. 2025. Novig, however, is seeking court help in anticipation of such a threat rather than one in fact, at least to date.
Headquartered in New York, Novig’s most current valuation came in at $500m following a $75m Series B funding round earlier this year.
“We chose to partner with the best crypto venture firms in the world to further accelerate our plans to make Novig the most efficient and liquid sports prediction market in the world,” Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said at the time. “Others are using prediction market technology to financialize new markets with unproven demand. We leverage it to fix broken markets where demand already exists.”
