The American Gaming Association (AGA) is expecting this year’s March Madness tournaments to draw a surge in betting interest in markets across the country.
According to data provided by the AGA, Americans are projected to wager approximately $3.3bn this month during the men’s and women’s March Madness tournaments. That would continue a sequential uptick over the last three years, as the AGA estimated $3.1bn in legal sports wagers last year.
“March Madness is the highlight of the college basketball season, and fans are gearing up for a month of tournament action,” said AGA President and Chief Executive Officer Bill Miller. “Fans continue to engage with legal, state and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.”
The AGA’s estimate only includes wagers placed with licensed sportsbooks in the U.S. and does not include activity on unregulated sportsbooks or prediction markets trading.
Strong betting interest amid advertising declines
Despite an overall decline in advertising volume and marketing spend across the industry, as identified by a study conducted by media research firm Nielsen, the AGA still expects continued growth in terms of bets placed during the tournament.
Total sports betting ad volume across all forms of media declined by 1% in 2025 compared to the year prior. The results were a 27% drop compared to the peak ad volume reported in 2021, a decline which was spearheaded by a fall in ad spend for sports wagering. Total sports betting ad spend in 2025 declined by 5% compared to 2024.
Meanwhile, the way in which gambling brands leverage TV advertising to drive betting engagement with U.S. audiences is continuing to evolve. The AGA and Nielsen found that sports betting made up 0.9% of total TV ad spend. By comparison, alcohol-focused ads made up approximately 1.5% of total TV ad spend.
Ad volume for sports betting on TV has also declined by 9% compared to 2024. Since 2021, the total sports betting ad volume for TV marketing has fallen by roughly 51%.
The AGA shares prediction market data
In addition to sports betting, the AGA has collected data regarding prediction market ads.
The association collaborated with Sensor Tower to analyze ad trends by the platforms and found that, through the first two months of 2026, roughly 43% of digital sports betting ads were tied to prediction markets. The AGA also determined how impressionable they are.
Sensor Tower and the AGA reported 7 billion digital ad impressions in 2025 by prediction markets, with Kalshi making up the majority of that with 5.2 billion ad impressions. By comparison, regulated sportsbook FanDuel has posted 2.9 billion impressions in 2026.
AGA sends a letter to Congress
The AGA is providing prediction market-related data after sending a letter, along with the Indian Gaming Association, to Senate and House members about the platforms.
The letter voiced the AGA’s concerns with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) self-certification protocols for prediction markets to offer sports contracts.
The AGA considers the ability to offer self-certified markets an exploitation of the CFTC and an undermining of state law and tribal sovereignty, despite the CFTC having federal regulatory authority over prediction markets through the Commodity Exchange Act.
The AGA wants Congress to consider adding event contract language into a cryptocurrency bill that creates a regulatory framework for transactions related to the digital currency.
