Flutter Entertainment has signaled a major strategic pivot in its U.S. operations, with the recent launch of FanDuel Predicts to diversify its commercial pipeline across all U.S. states from Q4 2025 onwards.
Noting that 2025 has been a year of both “unparalleled scale” in the U.S., but one of fiscal complexity elsewhere, the NYSE-listed operator group celebrated robust U.S. revenue growth of 20% year-over-year to $7.8bn, while adjusted EBITDA surged 82% to $922m.
However, the headlines were tempered by what it said to be “divergence” in Q4 sportsbook handle trends, where high gross revenue margins combined with sportsbook-friendly NFL results to dampen the performance on handle of FanDuel.
The prediction market play
Launched back in December 2025 in partnership with CME Group, FanDuel Predicts represents Flutter’s move to capture what it believes to be a “significant incremental growth opportunity” present in the U.S. beyond sports wagering and igaming.
Around 40% of the U.S. population currently live in non-regulated sports betting jurisdictions. The December launch of FanDuel Predicts is explicitly designed to solve this geography problem, pending future regulatory developments.
By offering access to sports-based prediction contracts in 18 states – including California, Florida, and Texas – Flutter is effectively pre-empting future regulations in states that have dragged on introducing sports betting frameworks in some capacity.
But as noted during the earnings call by Flutter Entertainment Chief Executive Officer Peter Jackson, prediction markets are viewed as a long-term play by Flutter’s board on total addressable market (TAM) expansion.
“We believe the emergence of prediction markets will accelerate the path to state regulation… This is the most valuable long-term opportunity in the U.S.,” Jackson stated during the earnings call.
“In the meantime, the near to medium-term growth potential from prediction markets for FanDuel is significant. There is new TAM to go after. Prediction markets will enable us to acquire new sports and entertainment first customers into the FanDuel ecosystem ahead of potential regulation. We can deliver attractive returns by providing sports markets to the 40% of the U.S. population who cannot currently access online regulated sportsbooks.”
Looking ahead for 2026, the group confirmed that it will be moving towards the higher end of its investment guidance for the predictions sector, projecting an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $200m and $300m for prediction markets in 2026.
This spend will be heavily skewed toward the second half of the year to align with FIFA World Cup 2026 and the start of the 2026/27 NFL season. This period of activity will be heavily scrutinised by analysts and investors in how Flutter handles its pricing, rewards and risk management on a series of expected multi-billion markets.
Casino: FanDuel’s growth child
While much of the buzz was centred around prediction markets, Flutter’s 2025 performance was largely maintained by continued growth across its core segments in the U.S., namely its FanDuel Casino division.
Compared to the same reporting period last year, FanDuel Casino revenues grew by 33%, amounting to 28% of the iGaming gross gaming revenue market.
Growth across its casino division has been attributed to its roll-out of exclusive gaming content, which includes its fourth exclusive Huff N Puff title which “[beat] all previous records for engagement in the first 30 days post-launch”.
The expansion of site-wide jackpots and a new rewards ecosystem also contributed to an 18% growth in Average Monthly Players for the quarter “and a step up in player frequency”, leaving the casino brand in a strong position to capitalize on future growth in 2026.
Sportsbook: concerns grow
Despite growth in its casino division, FanDuel Sportsbook faced counter-intuitive headwinds, with sportsbook trends across the market “diverged from expectations”. Year trading saw FanDuel account for “60bps unfavorable sports result impacts”.
FanDuel reported revenue growth of 35% for the quarter, yet this was achieved against a backdrop of moderate customer and a marginal improvement in sports handle to 8.6% (2024: 7.9%).
Jackson noted that the second half of the NFL season saw “less compelling content,” with fewer popular favorites making deep playoff runs. This lack of narrative, combined with a “generosity playbook” that management admitted was misaligned with the timing of results, led to higher churn and a resultant loss of market share to more aggressive competitors.
But in light of the sportsbook headwinds, the operator group remained optimistic about future performance this year.
“Looking ahead, we have a clear plan in place to navigate recent US trends and we continue to see a significant runway for growth in a dynamic market as we increasingly convert our scale, technology and customer proposition into sustained profitability,” Jackson said.
“With a pivotal calendar of global sporting and iGaming moments ahead, including the World Cup, we are focused on capturing the full breadth of these opportunities in 2026 and beyond.”
