The prediction markets news cycle never seems to slow down these days, to say the least. From legislation to litigation, and from action to reaction, keeping up with all the news is an enormous task.
So here at SBC Americas, we’re going to start rounding up some of the biggest stories and the things you may have missed each week. We’re doing our best.
Utah, is that a threat?
Fresh from being granted a preliminary injunction in Tennessee, Kalshi took the fight to Utah at the start of the week, suing officials including Gov. Spencer Cox and Attorney General Derek Brown in federal court.
Kalshi suing states is nothing new by this stage. But what stood out here is that this move was pre-emptive, based not on a cease-and-desist order but on public comments that Kalshi perceived as threats to its business in the state. Kalshi stated in the court complaint that it believes Cox and Brown will “imminently bring an enforcement action” against the company and said such action would constitute the state “impermissibly intruding on the CFTC’s exclusive authority”.
The filing came after Cox effectively turned Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig’s “we will see you in court” vow back on Kalshi.
Kalshi reports (some) high-profile insider trading
Sticking with Kalshi, the company publicly confirmed on Wednesday that it had banned two users for insider trading on the platform: one who works for YouTuber MrBeast and another who, last year, traded on his own candidacy to be Governor of California (Republican candidate Kyle Langford). Kalshi said that in both cases, its systems flagged the trading activity as suspicious due to their “near-perfect trading success”, although it’s worth noting that Langford posted openly back in May 2025 about the fact he was trading on himself.
Kalshi stressed that it bans insider trading and added that it has opened 200 investigations into suspected incidents in the last year. These two incidents likely came to light because of both the high-profile status of the people involved and the fact that whispers had already emerged about the activity.
After Kalshi’s announcement, the CFTC later stated that while it has full authority to police illegal trading practices on any exchange, the likes of Kalshi have “an independent duty” to monitor for such activity. Selig called CFTC-licensed exchanges “the first line of defence”.
Nevada Rep. Titus’ bill lands
Nevada Rep. Dina Titus’ Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act is officially in play, and now with full legislative text. HR 7477 aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prevent CFTC-registered entities from offering trading on certain popular event contracts. Yes, that includes sports. It also includes a reference to “casino-style gaming contracts” that encompass “any game customarily offered in casinos.”
Whether it will make any progress of substance in Congress is doubtful. But a) it’s another piece of legislation that shows that prediction markets are on many people’s minds and b) the inclusion of “casino-style” contracts shows that while prediction market platforms have not yet delved into offer trading on the next spin of a slot machine or the next hand of blackjack, one of the country’s most prominent gaming-versed politicians seems to believe that’s a very real future possibility.
New Jersey says our garden, our rules
More bills? More bills.
New Jersey Senate President Pro Tempore Shirley Turner filed Senate Bill 3692 in an attempt to ban event contracts on political elections, deaths, or catastrophic events. It’s worth noting that the bill would not outright ban sports prediction markets; instead, it wants to ensure that platforms have to either seek a license from the state or partner with an existing licensed Garden State sportsbook operator — and pay tax to the state.
“New Jersey already has a comprehensive, tightly regulated sports betting system that prioritizes consumer protection, responsible gaming, and transparency,” said Turner said in a press release. “Allowing prediction markets to offer similar wagering opportunities without those same guardrails creates an uneven playing field and exposes residents to unnecessary risk. If a company is offering products that look and function like sports betting, they should be subject to the same rules, oversight, and responsibility to protect consumers.”
AGA and IGA leaders speak out
That rhetoric on prediction market platforms needing state sports betting licenses to offer sports was echoed by American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller in a Las Vegas Review-Journal op-ed.
“Unfortunately, these prediction market platforms are offering unauthorized nationwide sports betting under the guise of ‘event contracts’ to deliberately evade state law and strip states and tribes of regulatory jurisdiction,” opined Miller. “It ignores the voice of voters and elected leaders who deliberately created a state- and tribal-regulated system to oversee gambling. This is exactly why state attorneys general and tribal governments across the country are filing lawsuits and taking enforcement action.”
A few days later, Indian Gaming Association Chairman David Bean said on the ‘The New Normal’ podcast that the IGA has called upon the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC, to step up.
“I think many of them are aware of it, but they’re simply not ready to take on the administration, or the family of the administration,” Bean said. “When we met with [committee] Chair [John] Boozman, he said, ‘Can you create a coalition, can you gather folks?’ I know what that means. That’s code for, ‘I’m not going to stand up by myself, I’m not going to take on the administration’.”
Hold your horses on Kentucky Derby
Finally in our spotlight this week, Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen made himself perfectly clear on where the company stands: the Kentucky Derby is off-limits for prediction markets.
“Pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing is conducted under the Interstate Horseracing Act, which is a federal umbrella statute that essentially gives us a series of rights — call them intellectual property rights — in our content,” Carstanjen said on the company’s earnings call on Thursday.
“To take wagers across any forum, whether it be a sports wagering platform, another horse racing platform, or a prediction markets platform, you need our express consent. You can’t just do it without that. We haven’t agreed to provide our content to prediction markets.”
