BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt said Tuesday the company continues to lean into “higher value, higher staking players” as a winning strategy as the company reassesses overall strategy based on the effects of prediction markets.
Greenblatt detailed BetMGM’s plans during a third-quarter status update for the MGM Resorts and Entain joint venture. While the focus emphasizes high-value players, he said BetMGM is also cutting investment in lower-return markets where sports betting is not accompanied by iGaming.
“We are hyper-focused on making sure that we look after our premium players in both sports and gaming,” Greenblatt said. “The more targeted approach is working.”
Overall third-quarter revenue for BetMGM hit $710m, up 7% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $86m in the quarter, up 112% year-over-year.
Entain reports its full quarterly earnings Thursday, while MGM will detail its report Oct. 28.
iGaming carries the load
Greenblatt said iGaming now accounts for roughly 70% of BetMGM’s business. Net iGaming et revenue rose 6% to $483m, with active players up 2%.
The Borgata brand relaunch in June lifted average daily actives in New Jersey and Pennsylvania 28% above its February benchmark.
The company is also bullish on its launch into the new Alberta iGaming market.
Why BetMGM is pulling back
BetMGM has preached value over volume since early 2025, but Greenblatt noted its importance is amplified as the competitive environment “remains intense, particularly due to significant investments by unregulated and illegal operators offering sports betting.”
He said those pressures will likely last “at least into mid-2027”, as he expects the U.S. Supreme Court to side with states and tribes on the regulatory jurisdiction of prediction markets in the 2026-27 term. Greenblatt called the recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules clarifying the difference between sports bets and sports event swaps “cosmetics in the pursuit of survival.”
“To the extent prediction markets survive, I think it is just a matter of time before the casino-like products reemerge in some other incarnation or some other form,” he said.
Rather than match sizable prediction market marketing budgets in states where sports betting is the only legal online product, BetMGM is pulling back. Instead, it is shifting more money into states that also have online casinos, as well as Nevada.
BetMGM operates sports betting without iGaming in these states and territories:
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Illinois
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Indiana
- Louisiana
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Missouri
- New York
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Puerto Rico
- Tennessee
- Virginia
- Washington DC
- Wyoming
Online sports handle in Nevada, where prediction market sports event contracts are blocked, rose 8% in the quarter.
Fewer BetMGM bettors, bigger wallets
Overall revenue raised by BetMGM’s average monthly online sports active users fell 9% year over year in the third quarter.
Those who stayed bet more and lost more:
- Handle per active user rose 13%
- Net revenue per active user rose 18%
- Total online sports handle grew 3% to $3.24bn
- Online sports net revenue rose 7% to $216m
- Gross hold rose to 10.7% from 10.1% a year ago
“Our lower player count is entirely as expected and reflects our intentional decisions around customer acquisition and marketing investment,” Greenblatt said.
He pointed to strong reactivations among high-value customers in September, as well as first-time depositors that came in above expectations. He also said a growing share of parlays and same-game parlays in the betting mix helped lift margins.
Greenblatt also said cost per acquisition has dropped meaningfully since the end of the FIFA World Cup.
BetMGM full-year guidance holds
Greenblatt reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.9bn to $3.1bn in net revenue and $300m to $350m in adjusted EBITDA, both toward the lower end. Adjusted EBITDA hit $185m through nine months.
Hitting even the low end will require roughly $115m in the fourth quarter. Greenblatt noted that puts a lot of weight on the heart of NFL season, and on the high-value bettors BetMGM has chosen to prioritize.
He said the company now sees a path to $500m in adjusted EBITDA “sometime beyond 2027.”
