Other than outgoing CEO Peter Jackson‘s impending exit and FanDuel’s sports betting struggles, FanDuel Predicts was a big focus in last week’s earnings call, and again during an Oppenheimer fireside chat on Tuesday.
CFO Rob Coldrake acknowledged that the rollout of FanDuel’s prediction markets product has been slower than planned. He added that Flutter will need to assess where its Predicts product is by the end of the year before the company, which will then be led by Dan Taylor as CEO, decides how much more money to invest in it heading into 2027.
Despite that, executives projected confidence during Tuesday’s fireside chat. They said last week that Flutter expects to generate approximately $50m of revenue from its own market-making by the end of this year, and announced that the company is moving all sports and novelty event contracts over to Crypto.com, away from FanDuel’s joint-venture partner CME Group.
“The product rollout has been slightly slower than we would have liked, and we’ve had some challenges along the way,” acknowledged Coldrake. “But I think moving our sports and novelty product to Crypto is going to ensure that we’re far better positioned on that front moving forward. By the end of the year, I think our product proposition is going to be a lot more competitive, and we’ve already recently seen quite a significant increase in our volumes.”
The CFO added that Flutter has seen “very quick and profitable” progress on its market-making venture. “We think this is where the majority of the economics will sit within the prediction market ecosystem when you look forward. We’re focused on taking as big a share of that as we possibly can.”
Just how big a market share FanDuel Predicts has in prediction markets volume is hard to say. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) data in April suggested that Kalshi towers above all others, while Bloomberg reported the same month that, as of that time, FanDuel Predicts was trending behind Kalshi, Polymarket, and PrizePicks in prediction category app downloads.
An EKG spokesperson told SBC Americas on Tuesday that the company estimates that FanDuel currently has a low single-digit share of prediction market activity, but that they expect FanDuel and other online sportsbooks-turned-prediction markets “to increase dramatically” in market share in Q3 and Q4.
How big a market share of prediction markets trading is Flutter targeting?
“Large,” Jackson told Oppenheimer analyst Jed Kelly on Tuesday. “More than we have now.” Coldrake added that Flutter is confident that its expertise in parlays (or “combos”, in prediction-market parlance) and its core sportsbook knowledge can help it take “meaningful” share.
“We’re scaling that business really rapidly,” said the CFO.
Make predictions money while you can?
Ultimately, Flutter leaders reiterated their stance that while prediction markets is a revenue and growth opportunity, it will remain an incremental one. Until a Supreme Court decision or another development halts sports event contracts in their tracks, Flutter intends to make hay while the sun shines.
“There are two things we’re focused on, and this why it’s all incremental,” Jackson added. “First one is acquiring those customers in those states in advance of sports betting regulation, and the second thing is making money using market-making.
“We need to distinguish between what is happening in the states where there’s regulated OSB and the states where there isn’t. Clearly, in the states where there isn’t [sports betting], prediction markets have a free run. There’s no competitor to them, other than the illegal bookies. All the data you look at in the regulated states, we’re seeing very limited cannibalization, and it makes sense, because the sports offering on regulated OSB is better than you can find on the prediction market.
“… The primary area where prediction markets are gaining traction is in these states which are unregulated, and so this is a great way for us to leverage the pricing capability that we’ve built over years into this new incremental. I’d rather directly monetize it. I think we’ll have one of the best market-making capabilities, particularly in combos, and we will look to try and make a lot of money out of it.”
Money out will become money in, CEO says
Jackson is convinced that investing more heavily in FanDuel will pay off for the parent company, amid underwhelming results, a crashing stock price, and an imminent change of leadership.
The company announced last week in its Q2 Flutter earnings update that it will pour approximately $270m in additional EBITDA investment into its U.S. business in the second half of this year, with key focuses on improving rewards and promotions in its sportsbook and driving increased cross-sell between verticals.
“It was a very straightforward decision for us to make,” Jackson told Kelly during the fireside chat. “For us, the question was how do we make sure that we extend our leadership position in [online sports betting]. From my perspective, I want to make sure that when we exit 2026, we have a bigger business with a better trajectory for the future from a market share perspective, and that’s what we’re focused on.”
Flutter: FanDuel Sportsbook troubles in rearview
Flutter announced its results on Aug. 5, the same day on which it revealed that Jackson will leave the role of CEO on Sept. 30 after almost nine years at the helm.
The company’s U.S. revenue dipped 6% to $1.68bn, segment adjusted EBITDA fell 70% to $119m, and FanDuel’s U.S. sportsbook revenue dropped 15% to $1.04bn. Globally, Flutter posted a net loss of $296m, compared to a $37m profit in Q2 2025, and overall company EBITDA declined 45% to $508m. The firm cut its full-year guidance as a result, including shaving more than $200m off its EBITDA prediction.
That came amid a pattern of declining stock value. Flutter’s share price crashed to a low of $92.9 on Aug. 5 within hours of the earnings update. It has rebounded to $99.7 as of the time of writing, but that is still down 52% from $218 on Jan. 1, 2026, and 67% from $308 on Aug. 28 last year.
Jackson said Tuesday that Flutter and FanDuel got things wrong in the final months of last year amid what he called “market-wide slowdowns” caused by factors such as tough NFL results for operators. “Our performance was not great in that situation,” he said. “I think we made the situation a bit worse, and that’s why we lost a little bit of [market] share in Q4.”
Flutter’s earnings release claimed that FanDuel is the top online sportsbook and casino in the U.S. market with 39% and 27% gross gaming revenue market share, respectively. EKG put its sports betting share at around 35% as of April.
However, Coldrake said that improvements such as a FanDuel Sportsbook improvement plan, the initial rollout of a unified loyalty program, customer reactivation, and an increased “halo impact” of cross-sell between sports and casino during the FIFA World Cup have gotten things back on track.
“This is about focusing on the longer-term U.S. opportunity, which we still think is very substantial for us,” said Coldrake of the H2 investment into FanDuel. “That’s a lot more important than maximizing short-term EBITDA, and that’s why we are willing to make this investment.” Coldrake suggested that Flutter believes a swing of roughly $200m in EBITDA performance is “very achievable” by the end of the year.
Commenting on FanDuel Casino, which grew revenue 14% in Q2, Coldrake added that the operator has “cemented” its position as No. 1 in U.S. iGaming. The executives reiterated their hopes that at least one new state will legalize online casino next year, specifically naming Virginia as a possibility.
