As usual, there were plenty of other developments on the prediction markets front in recent days. Every Friday, SBC Americas highlights some of the stories you may have missed in the ‘Prediction Markets Weekly’ roundup.
Connecticut hit the headlines this week when it unveiled a large-scale attempted crackdown on prediction markets … and was quickly sued in response by Underdog. Meanwhile, Kalshi absorbed another Ninth Circuit loss, this one in the tribal gaming sphere.
Let’s dive into this week’s news:
Senate opts not to send CLARITY Act for bigger vote
The CLARITY Act may be a cryptocurrency bill at heart, but tribes, gaming associations, and legislators voiced fears in recent weeks that its language could serve to implicitly green-light prediction markets offering gaming contracts.
That’s why some parties were touting a win on Tuesday when the bill failed to garner the number of votes required to move it along toward a full vote in the Senate. Senators voted 50-49 to reject the bill, meaning it came up 11 short of the 60 required to force the measure to floor consideration. That likely leaves the bill dead for 2026, with Congress set to recess until after the midterm elections in November.
Earlier this summer, a dozen Democratic Senators urged senior members of two key committees to add language to the bill that would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to clarify that “prediction contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style gaming products” would not be allowed. Tribal entities like the Indian Gaming Association (IGA) also called for Congress to reject the bill in its current form, arguing it would undermine tribal and state gaming authority.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), who voted against advancing the legislation, said in a statement that this version of the CLARITY Act “would allow prediction markets to continue to perpetuate illegal gaming operations that ignore state and Tribal law.”
Prediction markets debate gets bigger in Texas
At a Texas Senate Committee on State Affairs meeting on Tuesday, legislators in the Lone Star State mulled the idea of pursuing legislation or court action to halt the spread of sports into one of the most staunchly anti-sports betting states.
Texans wanting to bet on sports can currently do so on various platforms, from Kalshi and Polymarket to DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts. Perhaps unsurprisingly, that doesn’t sit too well with many Texan senators, who heard testimony from both sides of the coin.
Some cherry-picked quotes from the session:
- “Prediction markets think they can mess with Texas. I hope you prove them wrong and show them that everything is indeed bigger in Texas, including the consequences of violating their laws … I would pass language that explicitly makes clear that prediction markets offering gambling on sports is crystal-clear illegal under your state law.” — American Gaming Association VP Tres York
- “Prediction markets, regulated at a federal level and operated on a peer-to-peer, less predatory framework, are a safer alternative for customers and one that should be available … You can go the combative route and try to ban something that’s here in the United States and already federally regulated, but what you’ll end up with is a bunch of customers here in Texas just going offshore to an even more dangerous part.” — Kalshi Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel Robert DeNault
- “It’s an evil business that hurts people, and the gambling industry across the board is a predator … They’re gambling wearing a different costume to the ball. Some have high heels and a tiara, and others have miniskirts or a bikini.” — Sen. Bob Hall
While Texas lawmakers ponder whether to act, operators continue to target the most populous U.S. states of California and Texas, neither of which have legalized sports betting. Data from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming shared in April suggested that those two states combined account for around 43% of all sports prediction markets volume.
Genius Sports launches Prediction.com hub
Genius Sports continued to intensify its focus on the prediction markets opportunity by launching a new Prediction.com hub that it described as “the premium prediction market platform for comparing probabilities, event contracts and insights.”
The firm is already a major data partner of both Kalshi and Polymarket. Now, Genius is leveraging its owned media network and affiliate partner Legend, which it acquired for $1.2bn earlier this year, to launch a platform that combines live sports data feeds with prediction market volumes and event contract data.
The idea is that users can track real-time prediction market pricing and compare equivalent contracts and multi-leg combinations across multiple sites, all underpinned by Genius Sports data. The site already displays data from more than 10 prediction market operators, including:
- Fanatics Markets
- FanDuel Predicts
- Kalshi
- Novig
- Polymarket
- Underdog
Genius Sports said that Prediction.com will expand its coverage, functionality, and partner integrations as the prediction market ecosystem develops. The launch comes on the heels of CEO Mark Locke giving his latest public comments this week on why he believes the event contracts industry is a boon for his business.
Louisiana tribe first to dive into predictions
The Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana will own the first tribal prediction markets app, according to a Friday announcement. Kalshi will manage and operate predictions in partnership with the tribe, which is creating a subsidiary called SaltTrade Derivatives to house the platform.
“This partnership represents exactly the type of opportunity Indian Country should be pursuing, where Tribes are owners, innovators and leaders, not just participants,” said Tunica-Biloxi Chairman Marshall Pierite said in a news release. “For generations, the Tunica-Biloxi people have adapted, traded and built relationships that allowed our Nation to prosper. This initiative carries that tradition into the modern economy and demonstrates what is possible when Tribal entrepreneurship is paired with emerging technology and innovative vision.”
The tribe of approximately 1,600 people is taking an opposite approach from many others in tribal gaming. Two California tribes this week successfully stopped Kalshi from operating on their reservations and most of the tribal gaming community is united against prediction markets.
SBC Americas Editor Adam Candee contributed to this article.
