NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said the league will take a wait-and-see approach to sports prediction markets, suggesting the current regulatory uncertainty and litigation enveloping the industry risk staining the brand’s reputation.
Goodell was a panel member at NFL data partner Genius Sports’ investment day on Wednesday, and he struck a hesitant tone when Genius CEO Mark Locke brought up prediction markets.
“On the predictive markets, for us, that’s not something we’re about to enter into,” he said. “We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint.
“There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now. We like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, ‘we’re gonna let things play out, we’re gonna decide is this something we want to do?’ The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk brand on something until we feel confident that we can do it.”
Different commissioners, different views
Goodell’s stance is markedly different from his counterpart at the NHL, Gary Bettman.
The NHL signed high-profile deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket in October, as Kalshi offers sports event contracts across the U.S. and Polymarket prepares to relaunch in the market under regulatory oversight with a big focus on sports.
Bettman explained that the NHL, the first U.S. major league to partner with prediction market firms, is embracing working with those companies because he wants to league to have some level of control over the contracts offered on its games.
“We have aligned with the prediction market because we believe our fans need to understand that if they’re going to execute those contracts, it’s based on real data,” Bettman said. “But more importantly, it gives us control, because we have the ability to take down any contracts that we don’t think are appropriate.”
In contrast, the NBA and MLB voiced concerns about sports contracts in the past in separate letters to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this year.
Meanwhile, in August, the NFL confirmed that its players are prohibited from trading on football-related markets on prediction market sites that “mimic sports betting.” At that time, NFL Vice President of Sports Betting David Highhill said the league had concerns over a lack of responsible betting and integrity monitoring tools on prediction market sites.
Genius has grand ideas
While Goodell was cautious at Genius Sports’ investor day, at least in the short term, the company’s leaders see great opportunities in the prediction markets realm. Expanding on comments Locke made on an earnings call in November, he and Chief Commercial Officer Jack Davison told attendees that the firm stands to be a winner from prediction markets’ expansion into sports no matter what happens next.
“This will eventually normalize, regulation will come in,” Locke said. “From my point of view, the opportunities that this new evolution and this increasing total addressable market (TAM) present mean Genius is very, very well placed to take advantage of it.
“We already have the relationships. We have the technology. We have the data. We’re extremely sensitive and conscious to work with the regulators and to work with the leagues, as we always have done. But that puts us in a very, very strong position.”
Davison added that as the landscape evolves, he believes prediction markets and their partners will need more data, more league relationships and IP access and more support on sports, providing incremental revenue opportunities for Genius. The company also believes there is minimal overlap between prediction market customers and sportsbook customers.
“Prediction markets aren’t replacing sportsbooks. They’re not even competing with them,” said Davison. “They’re a different product for a different customer. And for Genius, that’s good news. Prediction markets are additive.
“Whether it leads to more uncertainty, to fragmentation, to clarity or even [sports betting] acceleration, the outcome is the same. Every path creates a larger TAM for Genius than we have today. The only unknown is the speed. But whichever way it goes, our opportunity just got bigger.”
