The league that Americans bet on the most appears to harbor the most serious concerns about prediction markets, as evidenced by the NFL‘s latest push to remove certain bet types from Kalshi, Polymarket and others.
While MLB and the NHL align with prediction markets through leaguewide partnerships, the NFL on Thursday wrote to operators reiterating asks from a March letter as it readies for its Sept. 9 opening game.
“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel wrote in part.
Which NFL bets does league want removed?
Perel details a list of markets that spans nearly a full page of the NFL’s letter, which it sent to CFTC-registered DCMs (designated contract markets). That list breaks down into four primary categories of wagers:
- Easily Manipulable by a Single Person (game related and non-game related)
- Inherently Objectionable
- Officiating Related
- Knowable in Advance
“The DCMs must defer to the expertise of the sports leagues to protect the integrity of our games,” Perel wrote. “CFTC Commissioner (Michael) Selig has asserted that the leagues are best suited to determine which contracts to prohibit, noting that ‘the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues.’
“The failure of DCMs to meaningfully incorporate the perspective and integrity expertise of the NFL is undermining public confidence in the markets themselves.”
What are ‘objectionable bets’ on prediction markets?
- Easily Manipulable by a Single Person
- Game Related
- Will a kicker miss a field goal
Will a quarterback’s first pass be incomplete
Will a receiver’s first target be incomplete
Will a running back rush for fewer than X number of yards on Ist rushing attempt
- Will a kicker miss a field goal
- Non-Game Related
- Broadcast mentions
Fan/celebrity attendance
- Broadcast mentions
- Game Related
- Inherently Objectionable
- Player injuries, including whether certain players will compete, when a player’s next game will be, and whether a player will compete in every week of the regular season
- Fan safety
- Player misconduct
- Officiating Related
- Timing, number, or types of penalties
- Officiating actions
- Replay results
- Officiating assignments
- Knowable in Advance
- The first play of the game
- Roster/personnel decisions (e.g., which players will start a game, which team will a player sign with, etc.)
- Who will be traded/hired or fired (including during the offseason)
- Live pick-by-pick contracts on who will be drafted
- Coaching decisions
“The NFL reaffirms our call on DCMs to refrain from offering contracts across all exchanges and platforms in specific categories, many of which the League has long referred to as “objectionable bets” in the legalized, state-regulated sports betting marketplace,” Perel wrote. “We note that the CFTC in its proposed rulemaking has found a great deal of these bets to be contrary to the public interest, and thus, these contracts should not be listed.”
Perel’s allusion to rulemaking refers to the proposed rules released by the CFTC in June. The public comment period on those proposals closed in July.
“Continuing to list these objectionable contracts threatens the underlying integrity of our games and creates significant risks for our players, coaches, and officials, as well as for those participating on your exchanges. It is imperative that DCMs take further action to remove any objectionable bets,” the letter concludes.
The NFL first wrote to prediction markets operators months earlier with the above requests but received little traction in response. The only significant change in sports event contract offerings since that time is Kalshi’s recent decision to remove certain injury-related markets, at the request of the CFTC.
