This week’s prediction markets discourse was dominated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishing its proposed rules for event contracts trading on Wednesday.
We also had major deals first between Kalshi and Sportradar and then between FanDuel Predicts and Crypto.com, while prediction markets were a central topic of conversation at SBC Summit Americas in Florida.
What else happened this week? Every Friday in Prediction Markets Weekly, SBC Americas has you covered.
AGA says CFTC rules make ‘a mockery’ of Congress
In its proposed rules, the CFTC adopted a broadly permissive stance on sports contracts, in line with the approach the agency has taken under the leadership of Michael Selig during President Donald Trump’s second administration.
It provoked responses from various corners, perhaps none stronger than from the American Gaming Association (AGA). Note the passive-aggressive repeated use of quotation marks around the words “prediction markets” throughout:
This is a remarkable attempt to redefine what constitutes sports betting.
AGA CEO Bill Miller
“It makes a mockery of congressional intent while going against a bipartisan coalition of 41 Attorneys General, countless legislators across the country, and the 81% of voters who recognize that the so-called ‘prediction markets’ are backdoor sportsbooks evading state and tribal law,” added AGA President and CEO Bill Miller in a statement.
“The consequences are real. ‘Prediction markets’ evasion of state and tribal laws is estimated to have already cost communities across the country more than $1 billion in sports betting tax revenue, hurting critical local projects. This siphoning will intensify as ‘prediction markets’ continue refusing to comply with state and tribal law.”
Tribal leaders: ‘It’s just a big middle finger’
On an episode of ‘The New Normal’ podcast on Wednesday that discussed the CFTC document, Indian Gaming Association (IGA) leaders could hardly hide their anger.
“It’s just the big middle finger,” IGA Chair David Bean told host Victor Rocha and IGA Executive Director Jason Giles. “Selig said he was going to wait for the courts to decide, but that’s not true. I’m not surprised. I’m definitely disappointed, but not surprised.”
Giles labeled it nothing short of “corrupt”.
“Kalshi isn’t going to say, ‘I’m going to open a casino next to you.’ They are saying, ‘We are going to take all of the sky above you.’”
IGA Conference Chairman Victor Rocha
“They’re not talking about the land, they are talking about the sun, the sky, the clouds,” added host Rocha. “That’s what we’re dealing with.”
ProphetX to launch ‘sports-native’ prediction market
Meanwhile, the crowded prediction markets field just became even more crowded.
ProphetX announced on Thursday afternoon that it has been approved by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), giving it the same status as the likes of Kalshi and Crypto.com. Calling itself “America’s first sports-native prediction market,” ProphetX said it will move all guns blazing into the sector.
“We can now expand our best-in-class sports event market offerings to millions of Americans across the country while competing on a level regulatory playing field,” extolled CEO and Co-Founder Dean Sisun.
While the CFTC registration process can often take 18 months or more, things have moved very quickly for ProphetX. It was only seven months ago, in November 2025, that the firm revealed it would pivot its operations to refocus on offering sports event contracts. That was the second major change to its operating model in the space of a few months, after it previously switched from its life as a peer-to-peer sports betting exchange to offer dual-currency sweepstakes games.
NCPG poll claims public support for consumer protections
The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) said this week that a new national survey conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of the council found that there is broad public support for consumer protections on prediction market platforms, with a majority of Americans viewing the platforms as carrying risks similar to gambling and believing that corresponding safeguards should be applied.
Among the conclusions were that:
- Nearly half of Americans (45%) say prediction markets are comparable to gambling
- More than eight in 10 Americans (84%) believe prediction market platforms should be treated similarly to gambling when it comes to consumer protections
- A similar proportion (82%) say platforms where people can risk money on future outcomes should be required to offer responsible gaming or consumer protection tools such as deposit limits, cooling-off periods, and access to help resources.
“These findings show that the public recognizes prediction markets as platforms that can carry many of the same risks associated with gambling,” said NCPG Executive Director Heather L. Maurer. “Regardless of how these products are classified legally, Americans clearly believe that if financial risk and repeated participation are involved, meaningful consumer protections should follow.”
Incidentally, the NCPG and Kalshi recently announced that the prediction market firm would invest $2m into the council over two years “to support a strategic initiative focused on trader health and safety”. Kalshi is the first member of a new Financial Services & Trading Subcategory of NCPG membership.
DraftKings trumpets its own success
Finally, DraftKings reported this week that DraftKings Predictions hit $1.3B annualized consumer volume (+24% month-over-month) and $3.1B annualized total volume traded (+34% month-over-month) in May 2026.
That is still a drop in the ocean compared to Kalshi, which does tens of millions of dollars in volume per month, but DraftKings said it is indicative of “continued momentum” for its event contracts product.
“We’re not waiting for the game to come to us with DraftKings Predictions, we’re playing offense,” said DraftKings Co-Founder and CEO Jason Robins on LinkedIn. “We are continuing to broaden the ways customers can engage with DraftKings sports experiences across the country. These early results reflect the incredible work of our incredible team. We’re just getting started!”
