The continued expansion of prediction markets into sports and marketing overdrive is affecting BetMGM, but the different platforms cater to different audiences when it comes to sports.
Those were the opinions of BetMGM Chief Executive Officer Adam Greenblatt on the operator’s Q1 2026 earnings call Tuesday.
BetMGM reported earlier in the day modest year-over-year increases in sports betting net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, although it effectively lowered its full-year revenue and earnings guidance amid what Greenblatt called player-friendly sports results in the quarter, as well as “a heightened competitive environment.”
A new era of competition
BetMGM was the first major U.S. sportsbook to report its financials in April, and the update came amid the seemingly ever-expanding sports event contracts business. Online gaming operators including FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, PrizePicks, and Underdog all have prediction market products, and firms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com offer a growing sports product nationwide, pending the outcomes of ongoing litigation.
Greenblatt noted that BetMGM has seen higher marketing and acquisition costs driven largely by “new sports betting companies” spending big.
“They call themselves prediction markets, and they are buying sports betting keywords as well as throwing money at any sports media property that will take it,” Greenblatt told investors and analysts. “They are targeting sports bettors directly in their marketing, thereby bidding up the cost of acquiring new players. Some of these companies even have ‘sportsbook mode’ in their product in an attempt to offer as close an experience as possible to sports betting.”
Greenblatt said he was confident that the current spending wave is not sustainable, and also referred again to the issue looming over the current sports betting landscape: whether or not a likely eventual Supreme Court ruling will determine that sports event contracts are permissible at a federal level above state gaming laws.
“We look forward to an expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing of the pro-states rights, pro-tribal rights and anti-prediction markets case by SCOTUS. In the meantime, we’re refining our approach to OSB marketing for the rest of the year under the assumption that current media conditions persist,” Greenblatt said.
BetMGM not competing for same customers as Kalshi
Greenblatt was asked during the Q&A section of Tuesday’s call if he could sum up the impact the sports betting side of his company is seeing from prediction markets’ sports offerings. He maintained that he was pleased with BetMGM’s results in sports, calling them “pretty encouraging” amid the wider industry context, and suggesting that both BetMGM and state-regulated sports wagering have shown resilience.
“We are still seeing year-on-year growth despite billion-dollar spenders and new spenders in the category,” he added. “I think our strategy is proving to be correct, or appropriate or resilient in these more turbulent times. We’re controlling the controllables.”
Greenblatt also voiced conviction that the majority of players who are testing the waters of sports event contracts will return to state-licensed sportsbooks (where geographically available) over time because those products offer a demonstrably better sports wagering experience. However, he noted that there are some cohorts of players for whom prediction markets will naturally appeal, such as sharp bettors and young players who may be age-blocked out of sportsbooks.
“Sharp customers who don’t otherwise have a place to play are in prediction markets; recreational players lose too quickly,” Greenblatt said. “If you are a professional player, if you are a market maker, if you are a kid in high school, unfortunately, there isn’t really a better place for you than the prediction markets if you want to bet on sports. But that’s not our customer.”
Land grab will continue for now, predicts Greenblatt
BetMGM is one of the U.S. online gaming leaders that has not followed the heat and stepped into the world of prediction markets. That’s partly because, as Greenblatt has said explicitly in the past, the joint venture of MGM Resorts International and Entain is unwilling to fall afoul of state regulators or other partners.
“We stand with 40 AGs [Attorneys General], our regulated states, and tribal partners,” Greenblatt reiterated on Tuesday’s call.
In the meantime, his company is standing on the sidelines and watching as a flurry of competitors floods into the gap offered by legal and regulatory uncertainty. But Greenblatt’s core message to the public was that he expects the frenzy will subside and there will be a significant reversion to the norm.
“I’m expecting that the land grab that is currently the reality continues, and we are positioning ourselves for when that changes,” he added. “In terms of our longer-term guidance, we think we’ve got a terrific business underneath it … We’re pleased with where we are positioned.
“And I think long-term, the market is going to come back to us, and that is an exciting thing to look forward to for the online sports betting industry.”
