It was a year of big changes for the sweepstakes industry in 2025, as casino and sportsbooks sites utilizing the dual-currency model found them pushed out of major markets like California, New Jersey and New York. With sweepstakes casino opponents pledging to remain on the offensive, what does the next year hold for the vertical?
The SBC Americas team got out its crystal ball and offered their takes on what to expect for the unregulated social plus market in 2026 and whether or not it will be as rough as 2025 was.
Jessica Welman: Sweeps needs to reconsider lobbying strategy
I certainly don’t think we have seen the end of sweeps as a vertical. It is still a multi-billion dollar industry and I think they retain some core states in 2026 that keep this business lucrative. However, I am not sure this pivot to “Social+” and the lobbying strategy of “hey, regulate us” is going to keep them in this position. If the reorganized lobbying efforts actually make the rounds to statehouses and start showing how much sales tax is on the table, I think they can win some battles. The tactic used in 2025 to point out that cleaving a clean line between social and social+ games is difficult if not impossible held sway too, but only when the discussion focused more on social casinos and less on McDonald’s Monopoly and Starbucks points.
But, if they aren’t willing to plant a flag and fight a legal battle somewhere, I am not sure I will be saying the same thing in 2027. Where that battle takes place, I can’t say, but if they find a state with a definition of gambling and sweepstakes that is particularly favorable for the products they offer, a legal decision could go a long way, especially as other states mull over potentially sending cease and desist letters.
Tom Nightingale: The industry will continue to shrink
I expect sweeps to mostly go away. Sweeps were public enemy number one for many states at the start of 2025 and, while that focus has shifted, I’d say the opportunities have dwindled for operators and suppliers alike in this vertical. The list of many platforms’ no-go states got longer as the year went on, even if it was sometimes a switch to free play rather than a total shutdown. With states still issuing C&Ds and new anti-sweeps bills being filed in November and December, I expect a large-scale reassessment of the business model’s viability. Maybe something like online skill games will rise to the top as the next big thing. What price on sweepstakes financial contracts? That was a joke. Kind of.
Justin Byers: The push for regulation could work
Tom’s coverage at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) Winter Meeting shifted my perception of the current state of sweepstakes and dual-currency gaming. The recent passing of anti-sweepstakes and dual-currency legislation in New York, California, Connecticut, Montana, Nevada and New Jersey had me considering that the proliferation of sweepstakes and dual-currency systems could be a thing of the past.
However, the reaction of sweepstakes operators to regulatory and legal pushback compared to prediction markets makes me think sweepstakes gaming could continue to be a hot topic of discussion in 2026 as some operators play the “long game” by abiding by regulatory requests and attempting to educate regulators and lawmakers on the vertical, compared to prediction markets directly challenging regulatory actions in court.
The willingness of some sweepstakes operators to adhere to regulatory demands can allow for lobbying opportunities in 2026, but a new year can also lead to new efforts by lawmakers to prohibit the operation of online sweepstakes casinos and dual-currency systems of payment. It’ll be interesting to see if sweepstakes operators in 2026 take note from prediction markets and start taking regulators to court over warnings and cease and desist orders.
