Leadstar Media’s U.S. team lead Patrick Corkery chats about the upcoming NFL season kickoff and discusses how affiliates are seeking new opportunities with social sportsbooks and DFS 2.0 brands as traditional real money sports wagering market launches dry up.
How important is it to ensure the beginning of the season is a positive from an operational perspective to set up an entire season of success?
The beginning of the season and the Super Bowl are when a site like ours will attract the most players, so sticking the landing at the beginning of the season is crucial.
September is when we have the opportunity to solidify a user base for the rest of the season, since the initial interest is so high and wanes a bit throughout the rest of the season until the playoffs. In my opinion, September is my most important month of the year because it sets the tone for the rest of the season.
The U.S. is proving particularly difficult for many affiliates given the lack of new state launches. How is Leadstar navigating this?
I still think if you have a sound strategy and service that it’s very possible to thrive in the U.S. market. There are only so many states, so dependency on new states opening was never going to be a smart business plan.
We’ve always kept an eye on the big picture, so I think our products are built to last, even in the toughest markets.
More than anything, the U.S. presents a lot of different opportunities. While Missouri may be the only state regulating this year, alternatives like social sportsbooks are a growing market. Being quick on your feet is key.
Recent months have seen rampant interest in DFS 2.0 brands, sweepstake casinos and prediction market/event contract operators. Has Leadstar Media worked with any of these types of operators? How much of an opportunity does this give you?
We have a bit of experience working with them, yes. On our flagship U.S. sports betting site, Sportsbooks Online, we’ve historically worked exclusively with the traditional real-money books.
However, with the demand changing over the years, we’ve broadened our scope to include DFS apps and social sportsbooks this NFL season. That way, we can reach users in the states where real-money betting isn’t legal, with the best options available to them. These alternatives provide that connection point for affiliates.
There’s plenty of speculation about the legality of prediction markets, but the consumer interest is undeniable. As a conduit between players and operators, how much do these legal concerns come into play?
You always need to be transparent. For our users, Kalshi and Polymarket are legal, but are facing challenges. I think it falls on the affiliates to be upfront about the fact that these prediction markets may not be around in the same way a year from now.
That way, the user can make a more informed decision about where they choose to deposit their money.
How big of an opportunity is it for affiliates to potentially work with prediction markets given they are operating nationwide?
There’s a huge opportunity, of course. Even the most widely available sportsbook is only working with affiliates in around 25 states, completely leaving out California, Texas and Florida, among other big markets.
Whether Kalshi and Polymarket are available nationwide in a year remains to be seen, but for now, they present a one-of-a-kind opportunity to reach traders in every state.
Are prediction market players similar to betting exchange players seen in other jurisdictions?
I believe that there is a ton of crossover there, yes. Of course, the prediction markets grab headlines by having the more “unserious” markets, but at the end of the day, most of the trading done on Kalshi is on game results.
Assuming that prediction markets stick around for the long term, I can see them becoming a go-to option for sharps, similar to how Betfair is in Europe.
What are the biggest consumer trends in the U.S. as we approach the NFL campaign?
Player and team futures are always big ahead of the season. Just about everybody I know who bets will have some action on a Super Bowl winner or a few teams over/under win totals.
The preseason is also a big time for fantasy and season-long pools to begin to take shape. While not betting, these games have a lot of crossover with our target market and can provide value opportunities to bridge that gap for our consumers.
Finally, any predictions or tips before the season kicks off?
I was looking at the Super Bowl odds today, and the team that really popped out to me was the San Francisco 49ers. At +1900, they’re tied for seventh-best odds to take home the Lombardi. Last year was a nightmare, and I think they’re in prime position to bounce back.
While they may not win it all, I think they’ll outperform expectations and make for a nice cash-out opportunity halfway through the season.
