The only good news for California’s Prop 26 out of new polling out of Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) is that the sports betting measure isn’t faring as badly as its competition, Prop 27. Either way, both ballot initiatives are on track to fail, at least according to independent polling.
Prop 26 polling at just 31% in favor
The unaffiliated poll reported this week that Proposition 26, which would allow retail sports betting at tribal casinos, is polling at 42% no, 31% yes, and 27% undecided. Proposition 27, which would allow widespread online betting across the state, is polling at 53% no, 27% yes, and 20% undecided.
The Prop 27 polling numbers are even more pessimistic than a poll from the Public Policy Institute of California conducted in September.
“These results suggest that the sports wagering initiatives are foundering in the face of the opposition advertising campaigns. The lack of support among key demographic groups makes passage of each an uphill climb, at best,” said IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler.
Only demo supporting Prop 26 is Under 40 age bracket
Further research from IGS also indicated that Prop 26 faces stronger opposition among Republicans than Democrats and independents. The Democratic Party of California neither endorsed nor opposed Prop 26. In turn, Democratic voters are split roughly down the middle on the issue.
Women oppose Prop 26 over men by a 2-1 margin. Similar to Prop 27, the measure does fare better with the younger demographic. The majority of voters under the age of 40 actually support the measure, according to the polling. However, the age group over 65 oppose the measure by a 3-1 margin. Areas with card rooms seem more opposed to Prop 26, which would also expand tribal casino table games in addition to greenlight sports betting. The Inland Empire was evenly split on the issue, while every other geographic area had more opponents than supporters.
TV campaigns seemingly correlate with negative sentiments
The television campaigns are impacting Prop 26 as well. Just over half of the people who are against the measure claimed they have seen “a lot” of campaign ads, while another 38% said they have seen “some”. Only 29% described their exposure to the campaign with “No/No opinion”.
The polling also measured support for Prop 27, which broke down similarly to Prop 26 on most fronts. Women were even more against Prop 27, with only 19% support. One exception is Democrats, who are somewhat split on Prop 26 but against Prop 27 more clearly. Proposition 27 is also opposed by the Democratic Party.