How an NFL team will perform coming off a bye week is often debated in betting circles, especially by those looking for value. This could be a factor in a few of the NFL’s Week 7 games according to TheLines, which tracks odds in the US regulated sports betting markets.
The Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers all sat out in Week 6. The 49ers (-4), Saints (-3.5), and Falcons (-2) are favorites in their Week 7 games, according to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including BetAmerica, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, SugarHouse, and Unibet.
Meanwhile, the struggling Jets are a 7-point road underdog in their matchup with the New England Patriots.
Since 2011, NFL teams coming off bye weeks are 202-165-1 against the spread, according to data from Teamrankings.com. Road favorites coming off a bye, which will be the Saints and Falcons in Week 7, are 65% against the spread.
Individual coaches have performed well, too. Bill Belichick is 13-9 after the bye week, and Andy Reid is 15-7, but both coaches have been consistent winners regardless of schedule. Meanwhile, the Jets are just 2-8 against the spread after bye weeks since 2011, the worst record of any NFL team over that span.
Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com, commented: “There is rarely a no-brainer when it comes to betting, and bye weeks hardly provide certainty. Regardless, bye weeks are worth factoring in under certain circumstances.”
The consensus point spreads for Week 7 games, as of Monday, October 18:
- Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-4.5); over/under 43
- Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-9.5); over/under 49
- Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans; over/under 56.5
- Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Miami Dolphins; over/under 47.5
- New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7); over/under 42.5
- Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants; over/under 44
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5); over/under 47.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3); over/under 48.5
- Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5); over/under 50
- Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17); over/under 47.5
- Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5); over/under 48.5
- Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4); over/under 45
- New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks; over/under 444