A Republican member of Congress has introduced the latest bill aimed at limiting how elected officials can use prediction markets.
House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil, a Wisconsin Republican, filed the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act on Thursday. The legislation would ban members of Congress, their spouses, and their children from trading on political event contracts, covering markets including:
- Elections and other political outcomes
- Government policy
- Government actions
It would also apply to contracts traded “on any other event which has come to the attention of a covered individual as a result, directly or indirectly, of the service of a Member of Congress in the United States Congress, regardless of any connection to the congressional duties of such Member.”
Bill reportedly has Presidential support
Steil wrote in a press release that he filed his bill because prediction markets have become a matter of public trust.
“The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information,” Steil added. “The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen. This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”
CNBC reported that the bill is not only backed by more influential GOP lawmakers, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, but that it also has the support of President Donald Trump. Republicans in the House have reportedly vowed that the legislation will get a vote on the chamber floor.
Political insider trading a hot-button topic
The House bill comes weeks after the U.S. Senate unanimously approved a bipartisan resolution on April 30 to ban its members and staff from using prediction markets for trading. That prohibition extends to all prediction markets trading, not just contracts related to political or government contracts, and applies to:
- Sitting U.S. Senators
- Senate Officers
- Senate staff
Republican Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson quickly introduced a bill to do the same thing in the House, but it has not yet gained traction.
Meanwhile, numerous bills currently sitting in Congress seek to implement a range of measures to curb prediction market trading, from outright bans on certain markets (including, in some cases, sports) to prohibitions on the use of insider information.
Steil’s bill makes no mention of sports event contracts, and he told CNBC that he does not believe trading on, say, the Super Bowl poses the same “ethical complications” that certain other prediction markets do.
Politics is one area that has come under scrutiny. In April, Kalshi announced suspensions and fines for three political candidates after an investigation found that they bet on their own campaigns on the platform.
