The American Gaming Association (AGA) took another swing at the “threat” of prediction markets to U.S. commercial gaming in the national trade group’s latest industry outlook report.
“Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state and tribal-regulated operators,” AGA CEO Bill Miller wrote. “It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this is a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry.”
The AGA collaborated with Oxford Economics to collect data and generate a new Gaming Industry Outlook report that provides key metrics and insights into the current state of U.S. commercial gaming market and what to expect as the industry matures.
“The legal state and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment,” Miller said. “Operators are focused on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape.”
AGA takes another shot at prediction markets
Released last week, the AGA report directly called out prediction markets and their danger to regulated U.S. gaming.
According to the report, 81% of the executives surveyed consider prediction markets to be a “very significant” threat to the regulated industry.
The association previously voiced its opposition to sports event contracts, having sent a letter to Congress in January taking issue with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) self-certification protocols used by prediction markets.
The AGA, along with the Indian Gaming Association, believes the protocols exploit the CFTC’s regulatory authority, and undermine state law and tribal sovereignty. The AGA also wrote letters to several sports leagues to discourage partnerships with prediction markets.
The executives believe prediction markets and event contract trading impact the bottom line of regulated gambling operators, with 42% of the group citing competition from new forms of gaming as a “major factor limiting operations.” In 2025, that rate was 25%.
The AGA’s stance on prediction markets has led some high-profile US operators to leave the group. DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 relinquished their AGA memberships in part because of the association’s stance toward prediction markets. In particular, DraftKings and FanDuel left the AGA after launching their own CFTC-backed prediction market platforms.
Positive outlook for US gaming industry
The association’s Gaming Industry Outlook provided favorable data and indicators of annual, quarterly and future growth for the U.S. gaming industry. The AGA leveraged its Gaming Conditions Index to report a 1.5% increase in real economic activity in gaming.
The index tracks economic activity in gaming by measuring:
- Gaming revenue
- Employment rates
- Salaries
- Wages
- Future events at retail casinos across the country
The data provided by the index is paired with favorable sentiments by gaming executives. Executive sentiment reached a net positive of 21.4%, compared to -5.6% in Q1 2025.
The growth is expected to lead to investments by stakeholders in gaming.
In the next six to 12 months, 62% of the surveyed executives plan to increase capital investment. In that same period, 50% of the executives expect cost savings related to AI in the next six to 12 months. Meanwhile, promotional activity is estimated to continue declining nationwide as regulated markets mature and companies use tools like AI to enhance operations.
The AGA reported a positive outlook despite economic and geopolitical challenges.
“The positive outlook comes amidst economic and competitive threats,” the AGA wrote. “Inflation continues to put pressure on company margins and consumer spending, with the conflict in the Middle East and higher gas prices exacerbating these issues.
“As executives continue to adjust to the changing economic environment, reduced hiring remains the norm, and wage pressure on margins remain a central concern for operations.”
The AGA surveyed gaming executives and collected data related to U.S. gaming activity and economics to draft a comprehensive industry outlook. The association conducted its research for the report in Q1 2026, with a total of 26 executives involved in the evaluation.
