Hawaii legislators specializing in consumer protection unanimously agreed Thursday that the state should ban prediction markets, sending a bill to prohibit the platforms forward in the House of Representatives.
House Committee on Consumer Protection and Commerce members approved via voice vote House Bill 2198, which would add the buying and selling of securities and commodities and similar financial products on sports, games of skill and chance, people politics, catastrophe and death to its definition of gambling.
All gambling is currently prohibited in Hawaii, although there are some other bills in play this session that could change that.
All in favor, none opposed
Members ultimately voted all in favor, with none opposed, and that was also the flow of testimony during the Feb. 5 hearing. Committee members heard four witnesses testify in support of the proposed ban.
“Talk about being timely,” said Hawaii Prosecutor Steve Alm of the bill. “I commend you for addressing the prediction markets. They are a real problem. They are gambling by any other name. It has the potential to destroy sports, and it has the potential to destroy young men and women.”
He went on to call prediction markets “really, really scary,” referencing incidents such as the suspected insider trading on whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would remain in his office, activity which occurred on Polymarket’s non-U.S. platform.
Stop Predatory Gambling National Director Les Brunell called the Hawaii bill “truly visionary.”
“We filed amicus briefs in three major federal litigation actions by different states in three different circuit courts across the country,” he said. “We’re involved all over the country and we’re looking for model legislation on prediction markets. You guys really came up with it and showed a lot of vision and leadership. We’re using that and circulating iot amongst all our members across the country.
“These prediction markets are a blatant attempt to evade Hawaii’s laws on commercialized gambling,” he added. “No need to speculate about that.”
Former Hawaii state rep. Marcus Oshiro agreed, telling the room that “89 or 90%” of Kalshi’s revenue in 2025 came through sports event contracts. “So, call it what you will. It’s betting.”
Before the bill was passed, the committee Chair Scot Matayoshi proposed an amendment that he sent would protect the bill from being repealed in 2029.
Prediction markets pop up in state legislatures
The Hawaii committee is the first in any state to move a prediction markets bill forward a step, but it’s not the only state considering one.
New York has at least three separate bills aimed at addressing the platforms on the table in the current session. Assemblymember. Clyde Vanel’s ORACLE Act would prohibit prediction platforms from offering markets on “catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities and athletic events” and a bill from Sen. Jeremy Cooney would require such platforms to seek licensure from the state.
Legislation from state Asm. Phil Steck aims to tackle insider trading on contracts, something which is also the core of a federal effort from New York Congressman Ritchie Torres, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act.
Meanwhile, an Iowa legislator wants to regulate and tax prediction markets and a bill introduced in Illinois just this week, also called the ORACLE Act, would impose numerous restrictions on the platforms. There’s also a governor’s bill in Connecticut that would block prediction markets from offering trading to anyone under 21 years old.
None of those non-Hawaii bills have even been taken up for discussion yet. How feasible it is that any state passes legislation to try to bring prediction markets in hand is dubious, especially while the very issue of state vs. federal jurisdiction remains the subject of court cases in numerous states.
