The entire SBC Americas editorial team got a de facto financial education this year after what became an absolute onslaught of news related to the rapidly expanding vertical of prediction markets. Be it lawsuits, partnerships, letters, confirmations, regulations or even now legislation, every day seems to bring something new to cover about a financial vertical that has a direct impact on the world of gaming.
Will this status quo continue into 2026? The team realizes the answer is probably yes, but exactly how the headlines pan out is up for debate as we predict what is in store for prediction markets next year.
Tom Nightingale: We’re headed to Washington
I can’t really see it going anywhere other than to the Supreme Court, given the court battles, lawsuits firing up in more states, and the fierce boundary-pushing of the sports contracts landscape while that’s all happening.
In the meantime, two big questions particularly interest to me: Whether other legal sports wagering states will follow the lead Arizona set with Underdog by looking to revoke gaming licenses over sports contracts offered elsewhere (warnings are one thing, firm actions are quite another), and whether the prediction markets version of sports proves to be a serviceable substitute for actual sports betting in non-sports betting states.
Justin Byers: Event contracts will remain top of mind
The prediction market space could either sink or swim in 2026, depending on how the vertical impacts the bottom line for event contract providers. To some, sports event contracts may be a fad, but the offerings are bound to carry their momentum into 2026 with their availability in select markets where sports betting is not legalized.
With major players like DraftKings and FanDuel entering the space, smaller brands may take a “wait and see” approach to prediction markets in 2026 amid potential regulatory repercussions, including license revocation. Meanwhile, the investment of time, money and resources by active CFTC-approved prediction markets will keep event contracts at the forefront of discussion in the industry throughout the year.
Jessica Welman: 2027 might be the real banner year
Unlike Tom, I don’t think we even make it to the Supreme Court in 2026. We are a year in and these Circuit Court decisions are only about preliminary injunctions. We haven’t even debated the cases themselves. So, from a judicial standpoint, I think we stay largely where we are.
As for the industry? Well it is obviously gaining a ton of new operators but the real question will be whether these partnerships are simply defensive posturing or whether or not this is something that actually takes off. Personally, I don’t think by Q4 2026 we will be hearing about meaningful revenue on earnings calls. But this is an opportunity for the major sports betting players to refresh their databases in the hope that sports betting will come eventually and they can easily convert this base over to what they themselves is a vastly superior product.
