Industry association groups and experts expect a new record of around $1.5 billion to be wagered legally on this Sunday’s Super Bowl LIX.
Ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles squaring off in New Orleans, here’s what the industry is saying.
American Gaming Association changes forecasting
The American Gaming Association (AGA) published its projection this week, estimating that around American sports bettors are projected to legally wager a record $1.39 billion. That would be up 11% on last year’s forecast.
If that sounds much smaller than past estimates it’s because the AGA has overhauled the way it forecasts betting for the big game. Past estimates included all forms of betting, including unregulated and illegal wagering as well as informal pools and contests between friends.
Last year, the AGA has estimated that 68 million adults would wager a total of $23.1 billion on the game via all regulated and unregulated avenues. This year, for the first time for a post-PASPA Super Bowl, the AGA didn’t provide that total collated estimate, instead focusing purely on the regulated market.
“With years of legal operations in several U.S. states, the AGA now analyzes historical revenue data and other trends to develop a legal wager estimate for major U.S. sports betting moments,” the AGA said in its release.
Eilers and Krejcik: Customers may recycle unusually high winnings
Research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) forecasted a slightly bigger legal U.S. betting handle of $1.5 billion “based on historical trends and recent state handle data.” EKG noted in an update that the estimate is around 20% higher than its projection for last year.
“The increase in our number is partially because we under-projected Super Bowl handle last year — handle that may have been boosted somewhat by the outlier-y Taylor Swift effect and record TV viewing figures,” wrote analysts.
It also expects sportsbooks to see a belated positive effect from what numerous executives have called some of the most “customer-friendly” NFL results and betting outcomes they’ve ever seen. While that hit operators’ bottom lines last fall and in December, it could boost spending on Sunday’s big game as bettors recycle their winnings into new wagers.
“We view 4Q24 as a positive for the long-term health of the U.S. industry — customers, after all, need to win every so often to keep them engaged and enjoying the OSB product,” EKG said last month. “Further, we expect significant recycling in 1Q25 as customers deploy healthy balances.”
EKG also estimated that 15-20% of Super Bowl handle will come from live betting. That is up 5% on last year but is still below typical NFL live betting levels, which analysts say is due in part to the fact that many Super Bowl bettors are not regulars on sportsbook apps.
GeoComply notes impact of surge in betting accounts
As for other projections, research firm H2 Gambling Capital predicted a 17% increase in wagers will yield $1.6 billion in legal betting handle, while investment bank Citizens JMP set the prediction bar even higher, forecasting up to $1.75 billion.
“North Carolina is the only active online sports betting state that was not live for the Super Bowl last year; therefore, we expect promotional investment to be down while the industry faces an easy comp with an unfavorable outcome in 2024,” wrote Citizens JMP analyst Jordan Bender wrote last week.
Meanwhile, GeoComply released its own note in which it suggested that increased betting on this year’s game will be fueled in part by the fact it found that the number of active sports betting accounts has surged 20.2% compared to last season.
