Leadstar Media: prediction market exposure is shaking up 2026 NFL season sportsbook

Football on a field
Image: Andrew Angelov / Shutterstock

The 2026 NFL campaign is up and running, and as always it is a crucial period for sportsbooks for customer acquisition. In 2026, though, it is perhaps a more important and more difficult task than in most years.

With fewer regulated sports betting states going live and the huge competition from prediction markets offering sports contracts almost nationwide, the stakes haven’t been this high since the repeal of PASPA.

In this landscape, SBC Americas spoke to Albert Ekholm, Website Manager of BettingBonus.com to understand how operators are approaching bonuses and sign up offers this NFL season and how prediction markets have changed the game.

The beginning of the NFL season is huge for customer acquisition in the US. What has demand been like for sign ups offers and other bonuses over the last few weeks?

The demand for bonuses has been very high, to say the least. A lot of sportsbooks are currently modifying or improving their welcome offers to match the peak interest, but we’ve also noticed a surge in engagement since we started tracking general betting promotions available to all customers, not just new users, more closely.

With fewer new states than in previous years, operators and affiliates must now target users who have not previously signed up for a sportsbook in existing states. How does that change your approach and what impact does it have on the number of FTDs you can help to convert?

Albert Ekholm
Image: Leadstar Media

While it does change the strategy to a certain extent, I think affiliates would be wise not to ignore the unregulated states. About 40% of the U.S. population lives in states where online sports betting is prohibited, but many of them still have access to prediction markets, DFS, sweepstakes or social betting. 

As our goal with Bettingbonus.com has always been to be the number one destination for any American looking for a betting bonus, we’ve put a lot of effort into making sure that the entire population, regardless of what state they reside in, should find legal options with us.

As to targeting users that haven’t signed up with any operator, we don’t need to convince non-bettors to start betting. Our model is built on capturing high-intent traffic. We offer a service for Americans specifically looking for betting promotions. Our goal is not to try to get more people into sports betting. With our model, we naturally capture a mix of absolute beginners looking for welcome offers and veterans looking for new platforms.

2026 is a huge NFL season for many operators given the impact of prediction markets. How has the rise of sports on Kalshi, Polymarket, etc fundamentally shifted the goalposts for online sports betting?

The prediction markets have upped the game for the whole industry. Not only can they target customers in non-gambling states (at least at the moment), but given the similarities to the stock market, they offer a much more familiar and recognizable concept to a lot of people. I think rather than trying to match the prediction markets, sportsbooks need to keep focusing on what they can do better or differently, for example rewarding users with bonuses, promos, boosts, loyalty programs and VIP rewards.

Prediction markets are the big growth avenue for many, as FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics and others introduce the vertical. What work is Leadstar Media doing with prediction markets, and what can you tell us about how users interact with the product?

Modern prediction markets are still in an early phase, and many operators are rushing to push out products in order to not fall behind. But the future is still a bit uncertain, as some 15+ states so far have taken legal action against them. We think prediction markets are really cool; they fill a gap in the market and offer those previously mentioned 40% of Americans an option where they previously had none. 

In the era of cryptocurrencies, the concept of basing the price of contracts by supply and demand instead of going by set house rules also fits right into contemporary financial culture. We have good relationships with most of the big U.S. prediction markets and will aim to continue on that path, but we are prepared that the future landscape might look very different from today.

Everyone knows how important it is to get off to a strong start in the NFL season, but what do operators need to do to engage players with their bonuses and offers at an important period?

The NFL season is definitely the most critical acquisition and reactivation window for U.S. sportsbooks, but mass-producing generic offers is no longer the name of the game. We’ve seen some operators adjust their offers to include profit boosts for local home teams, which we think is a simple but interesting way to mix up the promotions based on location. 

We’re also seeing a lot of attempts to remove friction, making it as easy as possible for the users to claim and use their bonuses. This might be anything from fairer promo terms to temporarily lowering the threshold for early payouts throughout the entire season.

What are the biggest consumer trends in the US as the NFL campaign got underway?

We’re seeing a surge in popularity with odds boosts and profit boosts, both in the U.S. but also overseas in Europe, especially with tightly regulated markets. Regular boost tokens and specials seem to be a solid strategy for keeping active users engaged, but it’s also a way to reactivate existing users. We think boosts might be one of the up-and-coming things in the U.S. sports betting industry, and we are currently working on some interesting projects to stay ahead of the curve. Keep an eye out!

Finally, who are you backing to win the Super Bowl this year?

I’ve got a soft spot for the 49ers, and our Californian users have always stayed faithful to us throughout our various development stages. I guess they appreciate our mantra of not ignoring the non-regulated markets, and we’re very happy about that. The 49ers also seem to be having a good year, and I think it might finally be their time again.

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