Even though Thanksgiving is still one more week away, oddsmakers are serving up a slice of home cooking for the NFL’s Week 11 schedules. However, not all home teams are a shoo-in to succeed this week, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the US regulated sports betting market.
According to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks, including FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, PlaySugarHouse, and BetMGM, Week 11’s slate of games features 10 home favorites as of Monday morning.
Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines, said: “It seems that playing at home is still an advantage, even with stadiums at far less than capacity. In fact, despite some early predictions to the contrary, it does not appear that there has been any significant deviation from typical home-road splits.”
Two teams going against the home favorite grain in Week 11 are the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are this week’s only 10.5-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the Chiefs are the second-highest away favorites by 7 points over the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Miami Dolphins are the only other away team favored this week, but only by 2.5 points.
The Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Chargers are the highest favored teams playing at home in Week 11. Both teams are favored by 9.5 points in their games against the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets respectively.
This season, home favorites have not fared particularly well, going 41-54 against the spread, winning 43% of the time. In 2019, home favorites were 65-94-6 against the spread, covering about 41% of all games.
If that year-over-year consistency is surprising, home teams are actually 76-67-1 overall so far this season, a higher rate than in 2019 when home teams went 136-124-1.
The consensus point spreads for Week 11 games, as of Tuesday, November 17:
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5); over/under 57.5
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7); over/under N/A
- Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1); over/under 46.5
- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5); over/under N/A
- New England Patriots at Houston Texans (-2.5); over/under 47.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3); over/under 45
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars; over/under 46
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5); over/under 47
- Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Denver Broncos; over/under 45
- New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5); over/under 47.5
- Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5); over/under N/A
- Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5); over/under 51.5
- Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders; over/under 56
- Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5); over/under 48.5