KEY TAKEAWAYS
- U.S. iCasino growth is cooling, and Rush Street Interactive executives said the market, not its share, is why revenue is trending toward the low end of guidance.
- RSI added a record 300,572 North American monthly players, but revenue per player fell 15% to $309.
- RSI and MGM Resorts International are both optimistic about new states, including Virginia, restarting iGaming growth.
Online casino has driven U.S. online gambling growth, but Rush Street Interactive (RSI) says that engine is slowing.
Rush Street reported Wednesday that its third-quarter revenue grew 39% year over year to $385.9m and its adjusted EBITDA surged 73% to $62.2m. The BetRivers operator reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $1.56bn to $1.6bn.
But President and CFO Kyle Sauers said October trends point to the low end of that range, and he tied the gap to a cooldown in North American iCasino. It is “largely attributable” to that category, he said, and it is “more about the market than it is the share.”
CEO Richard Schwartz said North American online casino and sports markets saw a “more measured pace of growth” in the quarter, noting that public state data shows the slowdown hit the industry broadly.
Sauers said RSI’s growth dropped from July to August, with a smaller change from August to September, and that “October looks a lot like September.”
Management didn’t pin down a cause. Sauers said lower activity showed up across RSI’s player cohorts. He noted RSI holds only about 8% to 9% of the online casino market, so it can’t speak for the whole category.
Rush Street’s online casino share holds, but economics shift
RSI executives said it is still gaining ground, with online casino making up 75% of its total revenue, growing 32% year over year, and serving as the primary profitability driver. The operator is growing market share year-over-year in all of its North America markets except Michigan, where Schwartz and Sauers cited “more competitive intensity from the newer privately held entrants.” An analyst tied that to the bet365 and Hard Rock launches in the Great Lakes State this year.
The player economics are changing too. North American monthly active users hit a record 300,572, up 34%. Revenue per user fell 15% to $309. Schwartz said new players carry lower expected values than a year or two ago, which he framed as a normal result of market maturity.
RSI is still spending to grow. Marketing rose 44% to $54.7m, or 14.2% of revenue. Sauers said player acquisition costs are the lowest the company has seen and paybacks remain within targets. For 2027, he expects marketing growth “quite a bit less” than this year. He expects growth to come from adding players rather than raising value per player, absent a surprise state launch.
September was also the worst sports hold of the year in the U.S. and Latin America.
Which states is Rush Street eyeing for online casino expansion?
Schwartz said only about 12% of the U.S. population has access to regulated online casinos right now, but RSI is hopeful that will grow in 2027.
He named several states as 2027 opportunities, outlining his reasoning:
- Virginia: Companion bills cleared both chambers in 2026 but never reached a final compromise.
- Ohio: Schwartz sees a path with either gubernatorial candidate in charge.
- Indiana: Recent Republican primary results created a friendlier backdrop for online casino.
- D.C.: Rush Street’s CEO called the U.S. capital a “very near-term” opportunity at the end of this year.
- Illinois and New York: Schwartz argued Medicaid funding cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could push budget-pressed lawmakers toward iCasino revenue.
RSI says CFTC’s casino contracts guidance boosts state expansion prospects
He also said prediction markets are raising lawmakers’ awareness of the need to protect state revenue, which he called another potential catalyst.
RSI’s CEO criticized sweepstakes and other gray-market products for generating no tax revenue. RSI has filed for Commodity Futures Trading Commission licenses, and Schwartz said the agency’s recent guidance suggests it is moving away from supporting casino-style games on prediction markets.
He called that positive for the prospects of regulated iCasino.
MGM sees similar online casino openings
MGM Resorts also believes there could be expansion on the horizon, with Michigan as its proof point.
On its Q3 earnings call Wednesday, MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle called Detroit and Michigan “probably the best live example anywhere in the world” of what iGaming legalization can do for a market with a land-based casino presence.
Hornbuckle said he is optimistic about legalization, whether iGaming takes from or adds to land-based business.
“That doesn’t mean it happens,” MGM management said. “We’ve all seen this cycle.”
He specifically named Virginia and Maryland as his core hopes for 2027.
“Virginia came very close,” he said, and MGM has had “real dialogue with the government of Maryland.”
