Will the Chiefs’ offensive firepower prevail, or can the Eagles pull off an upset? Amelco‘s Director of Trading Mark Hill, previews the Super Bowl betting landscape, highlighting the surge in prop bets, the influence of public sentiment, and the potential for savvy bettors to find value. He also shares his own predictions for the championship clash.
SBC Americas: With less than a week to go until the Super Bowl, which team is proving to be the most popular with bettors?
Mark Hill: As of now, the Kansas City Chiefs are attracting significant attention from bettors. At Amelco sportsbook operators, 80.9% of wagers have been placed on the Chiefs, compared to 19.1% on the Eagles. This heavy action on the Chiefs reflects both public sentiment and the perception of their playoff experience and offensive strength.
Despite this heavy bet flow on the Chiefs at -1.5, the market hasn’t budged, suggesting that the number looks right. Some of the sharper books initially opened at Chiefs -2, but those lines were quickly bet down. If the volume continues to come in on the Chiefs, we could see them close at -2 or even -2.5 closer to kick-off, but it is unlikely to reach a full field goal advantage at -3.
SBCA: Are there certain markets or bet types that are attracting a lot of attention from bettors? If so, why do you think that is?
MH: Beyond traditional wagers, player prop bets continue to be a key driver of betting activity. Bettors are particularly focused on individual performances, such as Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards or key player touchdown scorers like Travis Kelce. These markets offer more granular engagement with the game, allowing bettors to leverage their knowledge of player statistics and performance trends.
Looking back at the 2024 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and 49ers, 75% of the money was placed on single bets, predominantly on main lines (spread, moneyline, and total), while 25% of stakes were placed on parlays and same game parlays (SGPs). As we approach this year’s showdown, we anticipate a further shift towards SGPs and SGP+, the latter being an enhancement Amelco Sportsbooks has rolled out since last year’s final. SGP+ allows users to combine SGPs across different events and sports, and since launch, it has seen a surge in popularity.
While the bulk of early action has been on traditional sides and totals markets, we expect popular SGP combinations to come into play closer to kick-off. A likely trend would be bets combining Chiefs to cover the spread, the total to go over, Mahomes to exceed his passing yards total, and Travis Kelce as the first touchdown scorer – a combination that mirrors past betting patterns in high-profile games.
SBCA: Prop bets are likely playing a huge part – what’s looking the most popular and are any trends developing?
MH: Year after year, prop bets continue to surge in popularity, with the anytime touchdown scorer market leading the way. Last year, we saw almost as many individual bets placed on touchdown markets as on the moneyline, although the stake sizes on TD props were generally smaller. This highlights how bettors are increasingly drawn to high-engagement, lower-risk markets, allowing for more speculative plays and multi-leg parlays.
Despite the heavily skewed betting action on the Chiefs in this year’s matchup, Saquon Barkley’s 18 touchdowns this season cannot be ignored, making him a likely standout selection for TD-related props. His strong performance makes him an appealing SGP leg, particularly in combos featuring the Chiefs to cover, the total to go over, and Mahomes to hit his passing yards total.
Beyond TD props, market variety continues to expand, with bettors showing increasing interest in defensive props (sacks, interceptions), special teams props (longest field goal, missed PAT), and even micro-markets like Mahomes’ first pass completion result. The diversity and depth of prop markets are giving bettors more ways than ever to engage with the game, further fueling the Super Bowl’s status as the single biggest betting event of the year.
SBCA: From your own expert insight – where are you seeing the most value?
MH: The Super Bowl provides an unparalleled depth of market offering, designed to cater to the wants and needs of recreational bettors. However, with manual pricing mechanics, static odds, and slower-moving feeds, the event creates a ‘kid in a candy shop’ scenario for professional sports bettors. Unlike regular-season games, where pricing is dictated by well-honed models and sharp action, Super Bowl props often stray from traditional analytics, leading to exploitable inefficiencies.
This is particularly evident in novelty markets, where pricing is more subjective. Whether it’s the length of the National Anthem, the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, or even whether a field goal attempt will hit the uprights (‘Doink’ prop), these markets tend to be less data-driven and more open to variance.
For me, I’ll be betting late, which is typically something I wouldn’t encourage! The main lines will be extremely efficient, but if the public money continues to flow towards the Chiefs, we could see value on the Eagles at +2.5 if it gets there. Otherwise, I’ll be line shopping the prop markets, looking for book-to-book variances and targeting secondary markets – particularly TE2 receiving yards, which are often mispriced even during the regular season.
Ultimately, the Super Bowl isn’t just a showcase on the field – it’s a showcase in betting markets too, and those willing to dig deeper into the board will find the best opportunities.
SBCA: The Super Bowl is one of the most popular betting events, but how can operators maintain that momentum once the tournament comes to an end?
MH: Engagement on sportsbooks remains high even after the Super Bowl, with major sporting events quickly filling the void. MLB returns in March, major golf tournaments such as The Masters are on the horizon, and both the NBA and NHL are entering the business end of the season ahead of the Playoffs.
For Amelco sportsbooks, basketball remains a dominant market, so as soon as the Super Bowl concludes, attention shifts to March Madness. The NCAA Tournament is one of the most bet-heavy events of the year, drawing significant action from both casual and sharp bettors.
Beyond sports content, this window between the two major showcase events allows platform providers like Amelco to roll out fresh upgrades and improvements – something that is always welcome on both sides of the counter. Whether it’s enhanced betting features, improved user interfaces, or back-end optimizations for operators, this period is a crucial opportunity to build on the momentum generated by the Super Bowl and refine the overall betting experience.
Ultimately, operators that can seamlessly transition from one marquee event to the next, while also leveraging platform enhancements, will be best positioned to retain and engage their player base year-round.
SBCA: Finally, what are your predictions for the tournament? Who will we see lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy?
MH: The Chiefs and Mahomes are already cementing their place in NFL history, and we are witnessing a legacy unfold in real-time. A third consecutive Super Bowl victory is what the betting public and markets expect, and it’s hard to disagree with the sentiment behind it. Mahomes’ postseason composure, Andy Reid’s game planning, and a battle-tested roster make Kansas City the rightful favorites heading into the big game.
That said, the Eagles have exceeded expectations this season. They transformed a struggling secondary through smart drafting and were the only team in the regular season to hold their opponents to under 1,000 offensive plays – a testament to their ability to control games and limit opposing offenses. If they can disrupt Mahomes early and dominate time of possession by pounding the ball and eating up clock, they might just have the formula to pull off the upset and lift the Lombardi Trophy.
My head says the Chiefs, my heart says the Eagles – but as a neutral (and a sorry Saints fan!), I’ll be rooting for a spectacle and a tightly fought battle. With two elite quarterbacks, strong defensive matchups, and explosive playmakers on both sides, all signs point to a thrilling Super Bowl showdown.
